School Run Strategy: the complete rules, the logic and the numbers

What the School Run Strategy is

A mechanical opening strategy on the DAX: every morning, at the same time, you mark one single candle (the "signal bar") and place two orders in the market. That's it. The name comes from the fact that Hougaard executed it before taking his kids to school — the decision takes 2 minutes, at 09:30, then the market does the work.

It is his "bread and butter" strategy, published in December 2022 after he documented it day by day, for 500 days (2021–2022), with no cherry-picking. His principle, valid everywhere:

Why it works: the logic of the first 30 minutes

The cash DAX opens at 09:00 CET. In the first ~30 minutes, market makers work through the client orders accumulated overnight — that flow creates noise, not direction. The "real" trend of the day tends to show itself only after the client orders have been absorbed.

The SRS exploits exactly that: it doesn't guess the direction, it waits for the market to choose. The second 15-minute candle (09:15–09:30) is the "referee": if the market breaks above its range, you go long; if it breaks below, you go short. You don't have an opinion — you have two orders.

The rules, step by step

1. 09:15 – 09:30 CETWait for the close of the second 15-minute candle after the open. That is the signal bar. Note its high and its low.
2. The bracket ordersPlace both: BUY stop = high + 2 pts and SELL stop = low − 2 pts. The first one hit becomes your position. The orders stay live all day — they can trigger in the afternoon too.
3. The stopThe variant we verified over 17 years: a fixed stop of ~60 pts at today's DAX level (the original "40 pts" rule was calibrated at DAX 12,000 — it scales with the index). His alternative: the extremes of the signal bar. Avoid the "half of the signal bar" stop — on our data it loses money (see §05).
4. ExitNo fixed target. Hougaard exits at his discretion, reading the chart, and adds to winning positions. To start with, the simple rule that beats every target we tested: exit at the close of the day (17:30 CET) or at the stop — whichever comes first.
5. SizeRisk per trade = 1% of the account. The formula: (account × 1%) ÷ stop points = stake per point. Example: 10,000 EUR, 60-pt stop → 1.67 EUR/pt → you risk exactly 100 EUR.

An example on a real day: April 17, 2026

A real day from the cash DAX data (unmodified). Signal bar 09:15–09:30: high 24,200.3, low 24,181.0 — a range of only 19 points. The orders: BUY stop 24,202.3, SELL stop 24,179.0.

That is a "textbook" day — and it's exactly the kind of day that pays for the whole year: you enter with small risk (a small signal range), and the market trends without looking back. Most days do NOT look like this — that's why the training comes next.

What the data says: our 17-year backtest

We ran the rules on 453,244 bars of cash DAX (Feb 2009 – Jun 2026), costs included. Nobody — not even Hougaard — has published these numbers:

His frequency claim checks out exactly: 99.8% of days produce at least one trigger (he said 99%).

The mistakes that kill the strategy (the iron rules)

• You pick only one direction because you "feel" the market. No. Both orders, always — the edge comes from letting the market choose.
• You move the stop to "give it room". The stop is set BEFORE the trigger and only ever moves toward profit.
• You take profit early on trend days. On Hougaard's real numbers, the top 10 trades out of 3,370 made 51% of the entire profit — cut them short and the edge disappears.
• You add to losers. Never. (His rule #1.)
• You judge it after 3 days. You evaluate at 30 trades, minimum. Streaks of 5–8 losses are normal with a win rate below 40%.
• You trade your broker's 24h charts. The SRS uses CASH market hours (09:00 CET open) — on any other chart, your signal bar is a different one.